Oceania · Isolated Landmass
Tasmania
Australia
Tasmania is strongest on Population Capacity 10/10 — Tasmania already supports close to 580,000 residents with statewide urban and rural infrastructure, placing it in the highest credible capacity class relative to twenty people.. Its clearest scored constraint is Defensibility 1/10 — The canonical Base is an entire large state-sized island with cities, towns, thousands of kilometres of roads and a vast coastline. Twenty survivors cannot defend it as one perimeter, and no smaller Tasmanian site is substituted..
Overall
4.3 out of 10Defensibility
1 out of 10Isolation
3 out of 10Sustainability
9 out of 10Ranking context
How this base ranks
Global
#64 of 91 · Top 70.33%
Region · Oceania
#2 of 4 · Top 50%
Base Type · Isolated Landmass
#11 of 19 · Top 57.89%
Field assessment
At a glance
Bottom Line
For the fixed 20-person Base boundary, the most important endurance constraint is Maintenance Resilience 6/10 — Hydro-dominated generation, abundant water catchments, agriculture and ordinary building stock give substantial persistence without continuous imported fuel. Large dams, treatment plants, pumps, grid systems and ageing water infrastructure still require significant technical maintenance and parts..
Biggest Trade-off
The central trade-off is the catalogue's strongest evidenced dimension, Population Capacity at 10/10, against its weakest evidenced dimension, Defensibility at 1/10.
Most Likely Failure
The clearest evidenced failure pressure is Maintenance Resilience: Hydro-dominated generation, abundant water catchments, agriculture and ordinary building stock give substantial persistence without continuous imported fuel. Large dams, treatment plants, pumps, grid systems and ageing water infrastructure still require significant technical maintenance and parts.
Score rationale
Why it scores this way
Defensibility · 1/10
The canonical Base is an entire large state-sized island with cities, towns, thousands of kilometres of roads and a vast coastline. Twenty survivors cannot defend it as one perimeter, and no smaller Tasmanian site is substituted.
Advantages
- Positive credit is limited to what supports the Defensibility score of 1/10; the component rationale is: The canonical Base is an entire large state-sized island with cities, towns, thousands of kilometres of roads and a vast coastline. Twenty survivors cannot defend it as one perimeter, and no smaller Tasmanian site is substituted.
Limitations
- Do not infer additional Defensibility capability outside the fixed Base boundary or beyond the recorded evidence.
Isolation · 3/10
Bass Strait materially slows pressure from mainland Australia, but Tasmania itself contains nearly 580,000 residents including significant urban concentrations. The water crossing buys separation from external pressure while substantial local pressure remains inside the canonical Base.
Advantages
- Positive credit is limited to what supports the Isolation score of 3/10; the component rationale is: Bass Strait materially slows pressure from mainland Australia, but Tasmania itself contains nearly 580,000 residents including significant urban concentrations. The water crossing buys separation from external pressure while substantial local pressure remains inside the canonical Base.
Limitations
- Do not infer additional Isolation capability outside the fixed Base boundary or beyond the recorded evidence.
Sustainability · 9/10
A mature island society with statewide housing, potable water, sewerage, healthcare, agriculture and extensive renewable power offers exceptional long-duration habitat for twenty survivors. Distributed infrastructure and some dry-period water constraints stop short of a perfect score.
Advantages
- Positive credit is limited to what supports the Sustainability score of 9/10; the component rationale is: A mature island society with statewide housing, potable water, sewerage, healthcare, agriculture and extensive renewable power offers exceptional long-duration habitat for twenty survivors. Distributed infrastructure and some dry-period water constraints stop short of a perfect score.
Limitations
- Do not infer additional Sustainability capability outside the fixed Base boundary or beyond the recorded evidence.
Survival horizons
How survival changes over time
First 7 days: current defence/contact profile
First 7 Days
This horizon does not invent future upgrades or resupply. It carries the current evaluated conditions forward and keeps unknown future capability uncredited.
Positive factors
- The stronger current condition in this horizon is Exposure Control 2/10 — Bass Strait blocks external walkers, but the main threat source is the island's own large population across many settlements and road corridors. Tasmania's enormous coastline and internal network are not a manageable twenty-person approach-control system..
Risks
- The weaker current condition in this horizon is Defensibility 1/10 — The canonical Base is an entire large state-sized island with cities, towns, thousands of kilometres of roads and a vast coastline. Twenty survivors cannot defend it as one perimeter, and no smaller Tasmanian site is substituted.; no better future state is assumed.
First 100 days: current habitat/capacity profile
First 100 Days
This horizon does not invent future upgrades or resupply. It carries the current evaluated conditions forward and keeps unknown future capability uncredited.
Positive factors
- The stronger current condition in this horizon is Population Capacity 10/10 — Tasmania already supports close to 580,000 residents with statewide urban and rural infrastructure, placing it in the highest credible capacity class relative to twenty people..
Risks
- The weaker current condition in this horizon is Sustainability 9/10 — A mature island society with statewide housing, potable water, sewerage, healthcare, agriculture and extensive renewable power offers exceptional long-duration habitat for twenty survivors. Distributed infrastructure and some dry-period water constraints stop short of a perfect score.; no better future state is assumed.
Long term: current resource/maintenance profile
Long Term
This horizon does not invent future upgrades or resupply. It carries the current evaluated conditions forward and keeps unknown future capability uncredited.
Positive factors
- The stronger current condition in this horizon is Resource Security 8/10 — Tasmania combines extensive potable-water catchments/treatment, major hydro generation and wind capacity with a mature agricultural sector supported by irrigation and biosecurity. Dry-period water constraints, technical grid dependencies and imported manufactured/fuel categories remain, but local water, energy and food assets are unusually strong for twenty survivors..
Risks
- The weaker current condition in this horizon is Maintenance Resilience 6/10 — Hydro-dominated generation, abundant water catchments, agriculture and ordinary building stock give substantial persistence without continuous imported fuel. Large dams, treatment plants, pumps, grid systems and ageing water infrastructure still require significant technical maintenance and parts.; no better future state is assumed.
Tactical assessment
Practical Reality
Reality Check
Scores apply only to the defined Base and exactly 20 capable adults. Unknown, excluded or external assets are not credited as hidden capability.
Best Use
Within the evaluated boundary, treat Population Capacity as the primary operational strength; do not promote that score into capabilities the evidence does not establish.
Key Risk
Maintenance Resilience is the key evidenced long-duration risk: Hydro-dominated generation, abundant water catchments, agriculture and ordinary building stock give substantial persistence without continuous imported fuel. Large dams, treatment plants, pumps, grid systems and ageing water infrastructure still require significant technical maintenance and parts.
Strengths
- One of the strongest scored dimensions is Population Capacity 10/10 — Tasmania already supports close to 580,000 residents with statewide urban and rural infrastructure, placing it in the highest credible capacity class relative to twenty people..
- One of the strongest scored dimensions is Sustainability 9/10 — A mature island society with statewide housing, potable water, sewerage, healthcare, agriculture and extensive renewable power offers exceptional long-duration habitat for twenty survivors. Distributed infrastructure and some dry-period water constraints stop short of a perfect score..
- One of the strongest scored dimensions is Resource Security 8/10 — Tasmania combines extensive potable-water catchments/treatment, major hydro generation and wind capacity with a mature agricultural sector supported by irrigation and biosecurity. Dry-period water constraints, technical grid dependencies and imported manufactured/fuel categories remain, but local water, energy and food assets are unusually strong for twenty survivors..
Weaknesses
- One of the weakest scored dimensions is Defensibility 1/10 — The canonical Base is an entire large state-sized island with cities, towns, thousands of kilometres of roads and a vast coastline. Twenty survivors cannot defend it as one perimeter, and no smaller Tasmanian site is substituted..
- One of the weakest scored dimensions is Exposure Control 2/10 — Bass Strait blocks external walkers, but the main threat source is the island's own large population across many settlements and road corridors. Tasmania's enormous coastline and internal network are not a manageable twenty-person approach-control system..
- One of the weakest scored dimensions is Isolation 3/10 — Bass Strait materially slows pressure from mainland Australia, but Tasmania itself contains nearly 580,000 residents including significant urban concentrations. The water crossing buys separation from external pressure while substantial local pressure remains inside the canonical Base..
Assumptions / constraints
- Only assets inside the recorded Core Base and immediate operating boundary are credited; excluded surroundings and unproven future access remain outside the score.
Decision context
Rivals / Alternatives
Similar rival
Fiji Islands
Fiji · Isolated Landmass
Fiji Islands keeps the same isolated landmass strategy, with only 0.7 points between the overall scores and closely matched defensibility pressure.
Overall 3.7/10
Strongest alternative
Heligoland
Germany · Isolated Landmass
Heligoland scores 6.3 overall versus 4.3, adding a stronger isolation profile while staying relevant as another isolated landmass.
Overall 6.3/10
Wildcard rival
Fort Jefferson
United States · Fortified Structure
Fort Jefferson changes the strategy: it is a fortified structure with a defensibility edge, while Tasmania holds more of the sustainability advantage.
Overall 6.7/10